Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Second Serve Performance: In the past six months, Carabelli holds a slight edge with a 45.17% win rate on second serve points compared to Ruiz's 44.98%. Does this small difference suggest a potential advantage? Yes, but it's not definitive.
• Return Game Stats: Carabelli shows superiority on return games, winning 47.66% of opponent's second serve points versus Ruiz’s 45.56%. However, Ruiz is more effective on first serve returns with 33.39% compared to Carabelli's 28.88%.
• Breakpoint Defense: Carabelli has a stronger breakpoint save rate at 54.33% compared to Ruiz's 49.54%, indicating a potential advantage under pressure situations.
• Overall Win Rate: Over the last year, Carabelli has a higher win percentage at 64.1% compared to Ruiz's 53.57%, showcasing better overall form.
• Preferred Surface: Both players excel on clay with a 65% win rate, making upcoming matches on this surface particularly intriguing.
• Player Level Performance: Carabelli has had more success in higher-level Challengers/ITF tournaments, winning 79.49% of matches versus Ruiz's 41.67%, suggesting a higher competitive experience.
• Head-to-Head Record: Ruiz leads 1-0 in their direct encounters, having won their previous match on clay at the Seville Challenger.
• Quality of Opponents: Carabelli has faced tougher opponents on average, with a ranking of 163.94 compared to the 254.86 ranking of Ruiz’s opponents.
• Deciding Set Performance: Carabelli's 75% win rate in deciding sets over the last year is more impressive than Ruiz's 50%, indicating better composure in tight matches.
• Break Point Conversion: Carabelli is slightly more effective, converting 33.93% of break point opportunities compared to Ruiz’s 31.76%.

Editorial Prediction (July 23, 2025, UTC):

Both players have shown strong performances on clay, each with a 65% career win rate, indicating this upcoming clash will likely be tightly contested. However, recent trends provide meaningful insights into predicting the likely winner.

Despite Ruiz's prior head-to-head win against Carabelli, the more comprehensive recent statistics show Carabelli's consistent edge in several critical areas. Carabelli has demonstrated superior performance in breakpoint defense and conversion rates, areas crucial for turning pivotal moments into match-deciding advantages.

Furthermore, Carabelli's commanding win rate in higher-level competitions suggests an edge in handling intense match conditions. While Ruiz has held his own in previous meetings, Carabelli's stronger record against better-ranked players and greater ability in deciding sets paint a promising picture for him.

Taking these factors into account, Carabelli appears more likely to emerge victorious in the upcoming match.